Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 15

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259
WTNT25 KNHC 280838
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0900 UTC MON AUG 28 2006

AT 5 AM...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS FOR JAMAICA.

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BE DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LITTLE CAYMAN AND
CAYMAN BRAC. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THIS WATCH BE DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 75.4W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 75.4W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 75.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.8N 76.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.2N 78.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.7N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.5N 80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.6N 81.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 32.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 36.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 75.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART