Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 19

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622
WTNT25 KNHC 290831
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH
NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...
AND CAMAGUEY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
FOR THE EASTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 78.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 78.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.8N 79.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.4N 80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.3N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.7N 80.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.7N 79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 25SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.0N 79.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 42.0N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 78.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART