Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 21

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453
WTNT25 KNHC 292045
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 80.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 80.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 79.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.6N 80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.5N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.9N 80.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.5N 79.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.0N 78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 40.5N 78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 43.0N 78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 80.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH