Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 23

---

992
WTNT25 KNHC 300836
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2006

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE
BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 80.9W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 25SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 80.9W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 80.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.2N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.2N 79.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.7N 78.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.5N 78.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 41.5N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 80.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART