Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 28

---

342
WTNT25 KNHC 311449
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2006

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.6W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 0NE 75SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.6W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 79.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.4N 78.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 100SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 40.1N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 79.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA