Hurricane Florence

Forecast Advisory 2



854
WTNT21 KNHC 040228
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
0300 UTC MON SEP 04 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.4W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.4W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.9N 42.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 43.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.0N 45.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 47.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 40.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH