Hurricane Florence

Forecast Advisory 20

---

802
WTNT21 KNHC 081440
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2006

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 59.1W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......350NE 250SE 0SW 250NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 250SE 100SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 59.1W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 58.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 60.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...325NE 250SE 50SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 63.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 250SE 60SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...275NE 275SE 100SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 48.0N 49.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 59.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA