Hurricane Florence

Forecast Advisory 21

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013
WTNT21 KNHC 082030
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2006

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 60.1W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......325NE 250SE 0SW 250NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 250SE 100SW 325NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 60.1W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 59.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.9N 61.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 250SE 50SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.5N 63.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 250SE 60SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...275NE 275SE 100SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 42.0N 57.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 47.1N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 60.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

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FORECASTER AVILA