Hurricane Helene

Forecast Advisory 12

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519
WTNT22 KNHC 150850
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 53.4W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 53.4W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 53.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.4N 53.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.1N 52.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 33.0N 51.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.7N 50.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 38.5N 43.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 60SE 60SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 150SE 120SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 42.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 46.0N 19.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 53.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB





881
WTNT23 KNHC 150855
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 40.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 40.3W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 39.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.9N 42.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.0N 44.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 46.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 47.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 24.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 40.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB