Hurricane Helene

Forecast Advisory 13

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340
WTNT23 KNHC 151435
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 41.4W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 45SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 41.4W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 40.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.6N 43.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.8N 45.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.7N 46.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 48.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 41.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





755
WTNT22 KNHC 151445
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.3W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.3W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 53.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.8N 52.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.5N 52.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.3N 49.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 150SE 120SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 39.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 60SE 60SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 150SE 120SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 42.5N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 45.0N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 53.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN