Hurricane Isaac

Forecast Advisory 1

---

083
WTNT24 KNHC 272031
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
2100 UTC WED SEP 27 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 53.1W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 53.1W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 52.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.6N 54.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.1N 56.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 31.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 34.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 39.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 42.0N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 46.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 53.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH