Hurricane Dean

Forecast Advisory 12

---

737
WTNT24 KNHC 160835
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 52.3W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 52.3W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 51.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.9N 55.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.9N 63.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.4N 66.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 52.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





060
WTNT25 KNHC 160850
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE
IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
TEXAS COAST FROM SAN LUIS PASS SOUTHWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 96.7W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 96.7W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 96.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.0N 98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 28.8N 99.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 29.5N 101.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 96.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN