Hurricane Dean

Forecast Advisory 15

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727
WTNT24 KNHC 170248
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 58.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 5SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 25SE 10SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 58.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 57.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 61.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 5SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 10SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.1N 65.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.7N 69.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.4N 72.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N 92.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 58.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

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FORECASTER FRANKLIN