Hurricane Dean

Forecast Advisory 18

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710
WTNT24 KNHC 171751
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1745 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 63.6W AT 17/1745Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 63.6W AT 17/1745Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 61.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N 69.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.7N 72.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 63.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

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FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI