Hurricane Dean

Forecast Advisory 21

---

637
WTNT24 KNHC 180833
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 67.3W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..375NE 210SE 75SW 375NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 67.3W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 66.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.6N 69.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 72.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.6N 76.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 24.5N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 67.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN