Hurricane Dean

Forecast Advisory 23

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302
WTNT24 KNHC 182023
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 70.2W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 180SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 70.2W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 69.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 72.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 76.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 79.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 70.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

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FORECASTER AVILA