Hurricane Dean

Forecast Advisory 26

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359
WTNT24 KNHC 191443
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC SUN AUG 19 2007

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES...PINAR
DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 75.1W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 75.1W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 74.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.3N 81.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.9N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 75.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN