Hurricane Dean

Forecast Advisory 27

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612
WTNT24 KNHC 192043
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC SUN AUG 19 2007

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE
NORTHWARD IS DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 76.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 76.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 79.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N 83.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.9N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 76.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN