Hurricane Dean

Forecast Advisory 28

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084
WTNT24 KNHC 200244
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC MON AUG 20 2007

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CANCUN ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD...AND IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD
TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 270SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 77.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 81.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.5N 84.9W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.2N 88.4W...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.8N 91.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.0N 99.0W...INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 78.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

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FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS