Hurricane Felix

Forecast Advisory 4

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 011443
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007

AT 8 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 63.6W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 63.6W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.8N 66.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.4N 69.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 72.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.8N 76.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 63.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA