Hurricane Felix

Forecast Advisory 5

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 012042
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 65.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 65.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 64.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.1N 67.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 71.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.5N 74.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.2N 78.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.3N 83.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N 92.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA