Hurricane Felix

Forecast Advisory 11

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 030255
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2007

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM LIMON TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMEMLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 73.9W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 73.9W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 73.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.5N 76.6W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.0N 79.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.6N 82.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.2N 85.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.5N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 93.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 73.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN