Hurricane Felix

Forecast Advisory 13

---

000
WTNT21 KNHC 031429
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2007

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS NICARAGUA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 77.8W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 77.8W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.6N 80.4W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.1N 83.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.8N 85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.3N 88.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 77.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH