Tropical Storm Karen

Forecast Advisory 6

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240
WTNT23 KNHC 260831
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.0W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.0W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 95.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.8N 94.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.6N 94.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.3N 95.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.1N 96.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 95.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





001
WTNT22 KNHC 260838
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 42.1W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 42.1W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 41.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 11.9N 43.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.0N 46.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.3N 48.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.6N 49.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N 51.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 22.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 42.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME