Tropical Storm Karen

Forecast Advisory 7

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071
WTNT23 KNHC 261431
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1500 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 95.0W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 95.0W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N 95.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 95.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.3N 95.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.1N 96.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.0N 97.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 95.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




137
WTNT22 KNHC 261453
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1500 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 42.9W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 42.9W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 42.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.6N 44.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.0N 46.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.5N 48.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.8N 50.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 23.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 42.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH