Tropical Storm Karen

Forecast Advisory 14

---

422
WTNT22 KNHC 280846
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
0900 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 49.8W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 150SE 120SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 49.8W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 49.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.8N 50.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 52.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.3N 53.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.5N 56.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 65NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 22.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 22.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 49.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI





883
WTNT23 KNHC 280847
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
0900 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ
NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF
CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 97.5W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 97.5W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 97.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.9N 98.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 97.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB