Tropical Storm Karen

Forecast Advisory 17

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805
WTNT22 KNHC 290230
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 51.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 51.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 51.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.0N 53.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.2N 54.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.5N 56.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.7N 57.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 24.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 25.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 51.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





806
WTNT24 KNHC 290230
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 27.5W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 27.5W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 27.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.5N 28.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.1N 30.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.8N 31.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.8N 33.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.5N 35.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 20.5N 37.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 27.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN