Hurricane Lorenzo

Forecast Advisory 1



684
WTNT23 KNHC 252150
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
2215 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 95.0W AT 25/2215Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 95.0W AT 25/2215Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.4N 95.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.2N 95.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.8N 95.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 95.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 95.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN