Hurricane Lorenzo

Forecast Advisory 2

---

086
WTNT22 KNHC 260244
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
0300 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 41.0W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 41.0W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 40.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 11.6N 43.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.6N 45.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.8N 47.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.3N 49.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 51.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 41.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





805
WTNT23 KNHC 260245
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
0300 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 95.4W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 95.4W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 95.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.5N 95.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.3N 95.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.1N 95.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 95.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 95.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN