Hurricane Lorenzo

Forecast Advisory 10

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160
WTNT22 KNHC 272033
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 48.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..170NE 80SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 48.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 47.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.5N 49.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.8N 51.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.8N 52.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.7N 54.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 22.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 24.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 48.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA





902
WTNT23 KNHC 272036
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO
CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 95.9W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 60SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 95.9W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 95.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.4N 96.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 15NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 95.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA