Hurricane Lorenzo

Forecast Advisory 11

---

685
WTNT23 KNHC 280240
TCMAT3
HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA
TO VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 96.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 15NE 30SE 30SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 96.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 96.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.6N 97.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 96.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN





180
WTNT22 KNHC 280245
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 49.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 49.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.7N 50.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.9N 52.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.0N 53.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.2N 54.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 23.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 49.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE