Tropical Storm Melissa

Forecast Advisory 1

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877
WTNT23 KNHC 281441
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 98.4W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 98.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 98.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 99.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 101.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 98.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





122
WTNT22 KNHC 281441
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 49.2W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 49.2W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.6N 52.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.6N 53.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.5N 54.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 20.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 21.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 22.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 49.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA





095
WTNT24 KNHC 281442
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 26.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 26.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 26.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.4N 27.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.0N 28.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.0N 30.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.0N 31.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 34.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 21.0N 36.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 25.0N 36.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 26.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA