Tropical Storm Melissa

Forecast Advisory 5

---

594
WTNT24 KNHC 291436
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 28.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 28.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 28.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.6N 29.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.5N 31.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.6N 33.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 35.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.0N 39.1W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N 42.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 23.5N 45.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 28.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





253
WTNT22 KNHC 291438
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 53.8W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 53.8W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 53.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.5N 55.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.0N 56.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.5N 57.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 53.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA