Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 1

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657
WTNT21 KNHC 280230
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0300 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 71.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.6N 72.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 74.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.8N 76.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.6N 77.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 25.0N 78.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 71.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN