Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 2

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541
WTNT21 KNHC 280855
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0900 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER
TODAY.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 72.1W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 72.1W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 71.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.0N 73.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.9N 74.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.9N 76.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.7N 77.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 21.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 23.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 25.0N 77.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 72.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN