Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 3

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064
WTNT21 KNHC 281442
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1500 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 72.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.0N 73.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 80.0W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 78.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 72.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

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FORECASTER KNABB