Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 6

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251
WTNT21 KNHC 290237
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0300 UTC MON OCT 29 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 72.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 72.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 72.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.3N 73.2W...INLAND OVER HAITI
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.7N 74.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.0N 75.7W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.4N 76.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 31.0N 72.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 72.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS