Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 10

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930
WTNT21 KNHC 300231
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0300 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCE OF CIEGO DE
AVILA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 75.0W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 75.0W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.2N 76.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.3N 77.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.4N 78.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 38.0N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 75.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS