Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 12

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723
WTNT21 KNHC 301437
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1500 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 77.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 77.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 77.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.4N 78.3W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.5N 78.7W...NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.0N 78.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.2N 77.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.5N 71.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 0SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 39.0N 64.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 46.5N 58.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 77.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB