Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 13

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376
WTNT21 KNHC 302035
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 78.0W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 78.0W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 77.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 21.6N 78.8W...NEAR SOUTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.6N 79.2W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.1N 78.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.8N 77.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 34.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 48.5N 56.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 78.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

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FORECASTER KNABB