Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 15

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 310832
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0900 UTC WED OCT 31 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 78.2W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 78.2W AT 31/0900Z...INLAND
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 78.1W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.9N 78.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.9N 78.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.6N 77.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.0N 75.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.0N 69.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...180NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 44.0N 61.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 54.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 78.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN