Hurricane Noel

Forecast Advisory 19

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 010832
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0900 UTC THU NOV 01 2007

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 78.5W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 115NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 0SW 115NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 78.5W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 78.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 78.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.2N 76.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.5N 73.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.8N 70.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 180NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 60SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 43.5N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...240NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
34 KT...360NE 420SE 270SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 53.0N 52.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 57.5N 42.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 78.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

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FORECASTER BEVEN