Hurricane Bertha

Forecast Advisory 14

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316
WTNT22 KNHC 061443
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1500 UTC SUN JUL 06 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 45.1W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 45.1W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 47.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.9N 50.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.7N 53.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 35SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 45.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN