Hurricane Bertha

Forecast Advisory 15

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339
WTNT22 KNHC 062056
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
2100 UTC SUN JUL 06 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 47.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 47.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 46.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.7N 49.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.5N 52.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.2N 54.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.9N 56.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 35SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 47.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

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FORECASTER BROWN