Hurricane Bertha

Forecast Advisory 16

---

284
WTNT22 KNHC 070233
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0300 UTC MON JUL 07 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 48.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 180SE 75SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 48.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 48.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 51.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 35SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 48.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA