Hurricane Bertha

Forecast Advisory 17

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647
WTNT22 KNHC 070844
TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0900 UTC MON JUL 07 2008

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 50.2W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 150SE 75SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 50.2W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 49.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N 52.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.8N 55.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.7N 57.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.7N 59.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 28.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 50.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

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FORECASTER KNABB