Hurricane Bertha

Forecast Advisory 38

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 121432
TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1500 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 62.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 62.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 62.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.2N 62.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.7N 62.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.3N 62.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.0N 62.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 36.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 62.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

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FORECASTER AVILA