Hurricane Bertha

Forecast Advisory 47

---

000
WTNT22 KNHC 142043
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
2100 UTC MON JUL 14 2008

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 64.1W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 64.1W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 64.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 34.2N 63.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.3N 62.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.7N 61.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.2N 60.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 35.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 38.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 64.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN