Hurricane Bertha

Forecast Advisory 50

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 151452
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1500 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 62.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 62.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 63.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.4N 61.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 36.2N 60.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.1N 59.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW.
50 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.1N 58.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 37.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 41.5N 46.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 62.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

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FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN