Hurricane Bertha

Forecast Advisory 53

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 160853
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0900 UTC WED JUL 16 2008



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 61.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 61.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 61.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 36.1N 60.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 35.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.1N 58.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 40.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 43.5N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 61.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME